I have divested HLS last week after much deliberation. I purchased it in October 2010 and sold it at a slight loss. Luckily, my stake in the company was just a small part of my portfolio. The reasons for divestment:
1. Order book has been declining ever since I purchased the company. Order book at time of purchase was at $464 million. Order book at end of FY2010 was at $350 million. The current order book (as of 2nd Quarter 2011 ended 30th June) is at $272 million which is mainly from the balance works from Jln Gali Batu Depot and Marina Coastal Expressway projects.
HLS has not won any contracts for the latest Downtown Line Stage 3 and the last contract was given on 29th August 2011. The order book almost halved since my purchased. Even though they might win contracts for the future MRT lines such as Thomson Line or Eastern Region Line, there is too much competition with foreign firms from Korea, China and Japan entering the fray. Many Downtown Line 3 contracts were awarded to these foreign firms.
In the latest quarter report, CEO Mr Chua admitted that there’s intense competition in the market. Due to the dip in order book and also due to lower progress billings, revenue for latest quarter dipped 32% and net profit dipped 37%.
2. I also divested to pave way for some cash to purchase companies that are cheap/will become cheap due to the economic uncertainties. If I had not sold, there will be an opportunity cost of holding on to HLS when there are better companies out there.
Only time will tell if I made the right decision but nonetheless, I will take this whole episode as a learning experience.
HLS just released their 1Q2011 report yesterday.
Their order book stands at S$307 million as of 31st March 2011. It mainly consists of the balance of work for Jalan Gali Batu Depot and Marina Coastal Expressway project. No new contracts were won from Downtown Line 3 project. I’m kind of disappointed with the order book as it dipped further and will keep a close lookout to see if they win any Downtown Line 3 contracts in the coming months.
A fellow investor friend, Wan, pointed out an article in Kevin Scully’s blog on Hock Lian Seng’s order book and the potential for the order book to grow. A very big thanks to him for pointing out this article. The order book of HLS has been a concern for me ever since the release of FY 2010 results. The order book of HLS has been decreasing from around $460 million when I first researched into HLS to around $350 million as of Dec 31st 2010. So far, HLS has not won any contracts for the Downtown Line 3 construction and the order book has obviously decreased, partly due to this. In the article, it said that HLS is bidding for two MRT projects. They are for the Downtown 3 line (3 or 4 out of a total of 8 contracts) and Tuas extension (3 or 4 projects each worth $300 million). I have not confirmed this by counter-checking with LTA or HLS. I will keep a keen lookout for the next few quarters’ results to see how has the order book increased. I’m sure HLS will win a couple of contracts given they have a good track record with past projects. I will also have my eye on the profit margins of the contracts that may be won. For those interested to know what are the current tenders up for bidding, check out LTA’s website.
Hock Lian Seng, a BCA Grade A1 Grade A1 civil engineering infrastructure builder and building materials supplier, released its FY10 results on 22nd Feb 2011. It posted record revenue and net profits for FY10. Its net profits surged 27% YOY.
The revenue increased by $4.2 million (1.9%) to $229.0million from $224.8 in 2009 mainly due to higher progress claims recognized from Civil Engineering segment with the construction activities of Marina Coastal Expressway and Jalan Gali Batu Depot projects picking up substantially in 2010. The gross profit margin and net profit margin improved to 13.1% and 11.8% respectively. Gross profit margin improved due to better margin from new projects.
The cash balances stands at $165.5 million with zero debt. This represents cash per share at $0.32. Current price (as of writing) is $0.295. ROE and ROA improved to 30.2% and 12.5% respectively. Retained earnings slightly less than doubled to $45.6 million.
Looking at cash flow, cash flow from operations dipped significantly to $34.6 million (2009: $76.7 million). I’m quite disappointed with this figure. The decrease in cash flow was mainly due to decrease in advance payment received from customer and increase in progress billings in excess of work-in-progress. Average free cash flow stands at $32.3 million. This shows that HLS is a good cash-generating business without any leverage.
Outlook extract from HLS FY10 press release: “The strong economic growth in Singapore has prompted the Building and Construction Authority (BCA) to be more upbeat in its forecast for the local construction demand. In its press release dated 12 January 2011, BCA projected that Singapore construction demand for 2011 is likely to be between S$22 billion and S$28 billion. BCA is also upbeat that public sector demand for construction will strengthen to between S$12 billion to S$15 billion, led by Land Transport Authority (LTA)’s Downtown MRT Line Stage 3 contracts. The buoyant construction demand for 2011 augurs well for a positive outlook for the Group.”
LTA will soon be releasing the remaining results for the tenders of DTL 3 contracts. The first two contracts were awarded on 25th Feb 2011 and they were for the construction of Bedok Town Park station and construction of tunnels between Ubi and Kaki Bukit. Both these contracts were worth $480.4 million and both were not awarded to HLS. I’m sure HLS will win some contracts when LTA releases the results in the near future. HLS was involved in both the DTL 1 and DTL 2 projects. I will keep a keen eye on the contracts won by HLS to fill up the order book. The order book has dipped from around $460 million when I first analysed HLS in Nov 2010 to the current $350 million as of 31st Dec 2010.
In this post, I will touch the on SWOT analysis, competitor analysis and intrinsic value of the company.
The closest competitor that I found to HLS is OKP. OKP is involved in the infrastructure business just like HLS.
Currently, IV >> stock price. HLS is very undervalued. Also note that cash per share stands at $0.30 and is almost the current share price.